A strong fall cold front will move through East Texas tonight into Friday morning. The front, currently moving through North Texas, will bring a chance for a few showers through Friday morning. As dry air comes in behind the front, the chance for rain will come to an end by midday Friday. The dry air, combined with brisk north winds gusting over 30 mph, will lead to a very high fire danger on Friday. Please note: Texas regulations prohibit outdoor burning when wind speeds exceed 23 mph - even if there is not a burn ban in place.
Temperatures Friday morning will be in the 50s and 60s as the cold front pushes through Deep East Texas around daybreak. Officially, Friday's high temperatures will likely be in the 70s as that's where we'll be before the cold front drops temperatures overnight tonight. Friday afternoon, temperatures will range from the low 60s to the upper 60s, generally cooler for North East Texas and warmer to the south. For Friday night football, temperatures will be dropping into the 50s with a wind chill potentially in the 40s as winds continue to gust up to 30 mph.
Looking ahead to the weekend, temperatures will continue to drop from the warmer than normal range we've felt in recent days. Lows both Saturday and Sunday will be in the 40s, high temperatures will be in the 60s and low 70s. Mostly sunny skies are expected this weekend; there is no rain in the forecast. Next week, chances for rain do return to the forecast by the end of the week, and temperatures climb back into the warmer than normal range for mid-to-late October.
New today, NOAA released their U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027. A very strong El Niño will likely have a significant influence on the upcoming winter. Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service saying, "we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South. While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides."
As Moderate to Extreme Drought persists across East Texas in this week's update to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the NOAA Winter Outlook also includes good news towards drought improvement. Drought conditions are expected to improve or end across East Texas and much of the Southern Plains this winter. Currently, to end the drought in East Texas, around 13 inches of rain would be needed over the next month, or up to 20 inches over the next 3 months. Typically, East Texas normally receives around 10 to 12 inches of rain from mid-October through the end of the year. That said, both the November climate outlook, and the winter outlook, call for wetter than normal conditions in East Texas.
Today in weather history... October 15, 1984, Mother Nature had an interesting plan for the Broncos vs Packers Monday Night Football matchup. By the time the game concluded, more than four inches of snow had accumulated on the field of Mile High Stadium. The Broncos won 17 to 14. Today's daily weather history segment comes to us courtesy of the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Also on today's edition of First Alert Weather Extra, we're getting an update on severe storms and flooding across the Central U.S. this week. In closing, our satellite imagery of the day, showing a large low-pressure system spinning near Iceland, courtesy of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.
